Social Security Benefit-Cut
Calculator 2026
The Social Security trust funds are projected to deplete in the 2030s, triggering an automatic across-the-board benefit cut unless Congress acts. See what it does to your check — and how much extra to save.
Quick answer: Under the 2026 Social Security Trustees Report (released June 9, 2026), the combined OASDI trust funds are projected to deplete in 2034, after which payroll-tax income would cover about 83% of scheduled benefits — an automatic across-the-board cut of roughly 17% unless Congress acts. The retirement fund alone (OASI) is projected to deplete sooner, in 2032, with a steeper ~22% cut (78% payable). For a typical $2,000/month benefit, a 17% cut is about $340 less per month (~$4,080 a year); a 22% cut is about $440 less (~$5,280 a year). This is current-law scheduled behavior, not a specific reform proposal — Congress can and historically has acted to prevent it.
Last reviewed 17 July 2026 by the Richify AI editorial team.
Is Social Security getting cut, and by how much?
Under current law, yes — unless Congress acts. The 2026 OASDI Trustees Report projects the combined trust funds deplete in 2034, after which payroll taxes cover 83% of scheduled benefits (an automatic ~17% cut). The retirement fund alone (OASI) depletes in 2032 with 78% payable (a ~22% cut). The reduction is across-the-board — the same percentage for every recipient, current retirees included — and applies on the depletion date. It is scheduled current-law behavior, not a specific bill; Congress can prevent it, and has fixed the program before.
Last updated: July 2026 · 2026 OASDI Trustees Report, released June 9, 2026
Sources: 2026 OASDI Trustees Report (SSA) · SSA Board of Trustees press release, June 9, 2026 · Congressional Budget Office long-term Social Security projections · CRFB & Bipartisan Policy Center analyses (June 2026)
📋 Educational tool only. Not financial, tax, or investment advice. Projections model current law "if Congress does not act" and will change with each Trustees Report. Consult a qualified financial planner for personalised guidance.
Use your SSA statement or estimate. The 2026 average retired-worker benefit is roughly $2,000/month; the maximum at full retirement age is about $4,000.
You would be about 63 when the Combined OASDI cut starts in 2034, and could receive a reduced benefit for roughly 27 years.
Combined OASDI assumes Congress reallocates between the two funds (later date, smaller cut). OASI-only is the current legal-structure outcome (earlier date, larger cut).
Planning horizon (default 90).
After inflation (default 4%).
Reduced monthly benefit
$1,660
after a 17% cut (was $2,000)
Annual shortfall
$4,080
$340/mo lost from 2034
Lifetime shortfall
$110,160
today's $ to age 90 (27 yrs)
Extra to save / month
$592
for 8 yrs at 4% real
What the cut costs you
$110,160
A 17% cut takes $340 off your $2,000 monthly benefit — $4,080 a year. Held constant in today's dollars from 2034 to age 90, that is about $110,160 of lost lifetime benefits over roughly 27 years.
Your reduced check: $1,660/mo vs $2,000 today.
What it takes to close the gap
$592/mo
Saving $592 a month for the 8 years until 2034, compounding at 4% real, builds enough to replace the lost benefits. Prefer a lump sum? You'd need about $48,682 set aside today.
Assumes 4% return after inflation; ignores taxes and any Congressional fix.
OASI-only vs combined OASDI — both scenarios
| Scenario | Deplete | % payable | Cut | Reduced /mo | Annual shortfall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Combined OASDI★ selected | Q3 2034 | 83% | 17% | $1,660 | $4,080 |
| OASI only | Q4 2032 | 78% | 22% | $1,560 | $5,280 |
Depletion years and payable percentages: 2026 OASDI Trustees Report (SSA, released June 9, 2026). Reduced benefit and shortfall computed on your entered benefit of $2,000/month.
Why there are two different numbers (2032/22% vs 2034/17%)
Social Security is legally two separate trust funds: OASI, which pays retirement and survivor benefits, and DI, which pays disability benefits. The 2026 Trustees Report projects OASI's reserves depleting in the fourth quarter of 2032, leaving 78% of scheduled benefits payable — a ~22% cut. DI, by contrast, is not projected to deplete within the 75-year window. If Congress legally combines the two funds (as it has done before by reallocating revenue), the healthier DI fund extends the retirement program to a third-quarter 2034 depletion with 83% payable — a ~17% cut. Combining requires legislation, so 2032/22% is the strict current-legal-structure outcome and 2034/17% is the commonly cited combined figure that presumes a routine reallocation. This tool defaults to the combined figure but lets you model either. Source: 2026 OASDI Trustees Report, SSA, June 9, 2026.
How the automatic cut works legally
The reduction is not a policy choice made at depletion — it is the default the law forces. The Social Security Act authorizes benefit payments only to the extent the trust funds hold assets; the program cannot borrow to cover a gap the way the general federal budget can. So on the day reserves reach zero, the Treasury can only pay out what current payroll and benefit-taxation revenue brings in — roughly 83 cents (combined) or 78 cents (OASI-only) on each scheduled dollar under the 2026 projections. Because the shortfall is proportional, the cut is across-the-board: every beneficiary's check is reduced by the same percentage on the same date, with no means test and no protection for people already retired. That is why analysts describe it as automatic and universal — and why it differs sharply from reform bills, which typically phase changes in and shield near-retirees. Source: Social Security Act trust-fund provisions; 2026 OASDI Trustees Report.
How much extra to save, and how this tool computes it
To hedge the cut, you need enough savings to replace the lost benefit for as long as you would have collected it. The calculator takes your annual shortfall (benefit × cut × 12) and, treating it as an inflation-adjusted stream, computes its present value at the depletion year over the years from then to your life-expectancy setting, discounted at a disclosed real return (default 4%). That gives the lump sum needed at the moment the cut starts. It then either discounts that back to a lump sum you'd need today, or spreads it into equal monthly contributions from now until the cut, compounding at the same rate. The estimates are deliberately conservative: they hold your benefit constant in real terms, ignore taxes and market volatility, and assume no Congressional fix. Treat the figure as a planning target to revisit annually, not a precise mandate. Source: 2026 Trustees Report figures; standard present-value math.
What this tool does NOT model
This calculator models one thing: the current-law scheduled reduction "if Congress does not act." It does not assume any specific reform passes, and it presents no proposal — not raising the payroll-tax cap, not lifting the retirement age, not benefit-formula changes, not general-revenue transfers. Congress has many ways to close the 4.42%-of-payroll gap and has repaired the program before rather than let benefits fall, so a full cut is a risk to hedge, not a certainty. The tool also ignores federal and state income tax on benefits, the annual cost-of-living adjustment (it works in today's dollars), sequence-of-returns risk on your savings, and spousal or survivor benefit interactions. The depletion dates themselves shift with each yearly Trustees Report — the OASI date moved from 2033 to 2032 between 2025 and 2026 — so revisit your plan when new figures publish. Source: 2026 OASDI Trustees Report, SSA, June 9, 2026.
Assumptions in this projection
- • Depletion years and payable percentages are taken directly from the 2026 OASDI Trustees Report (SSA, released June 9, 2026): combined OASDI 2034 / 83% payable; OASI-only 2032 / 78% payable. DI alone does not deplete in the 75-year window.
- • The cut is applied as a flat across-the-board percentage to your entered benefit, from the depletion year until your life-expectancy setting. Your benefit is held constant in real (inflation-adjusted) terms, so all dollar figures are in today's dollars.
- • The lifetime shortfall is the annual shortfall multiplied by the number of years you receive a reduced benefit (life expectancy minus your age when the cut starts, floored at zero).
- • "Extra to save" discounts the shortfall stream at your assumed real return (default 4%) to a lump sum at the depletion year, then either discounts it to today or annuitizes it into equal monthly contributions until the cut begins. Taxes, fees, and market volatility are excluded.
- • This models current law only. It does not assume or endorse any reform. Congress can prevent the cut, and the projected dates change with every annual Trustees Report.
Last updated July 2026. Primary source: 2026 OASDI Trustees Report (Social Security Administration, released June 9, 2026) — combined OASDI deplete 2034 / 83% payable (~17% cut); OASI-only deplete 2032 / 78% payable (~22% cut); 75-year deficit 4.42% of taxable payroll. Corroborated by the Congressional Budget Office's long-term Social Security projections (combined exhaustion ~end of 2034) and CRFB / Bipartisan Policy Center analyses (June 2026).
This is the textbook answer. Want to see this calculated against your actual accounts?
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Social Security is funded by dedicated payroll (FICA) taxes plus two trust funds that hold accumulated reserves. Benefits are paid in full only while a fund has money; the Social Security Act does not authorize borrowing to cover a shortfall. So when reserves run out, benefits are automatically limited to what incoming taxes can pay — an across-the-board cut, the same percentage for everyone, "if Congress does not act." The 2026 OASDI Trustees Report (released June 9, 2026) projects these current-law outcomes:
- Combined OASDI — deplete 2034, 83% payable (~17% cut) — if the retirement (OASI) and disability (DI) funds are legally combined, reserves last until the third quarter of 2034, after which payroll taxes cover about 83% of scheduled benefits. This is the default and most-cited figure.
- OASI retirement fund alone — deplete 2032, 78% payable (~22% cut) — the fund that actually pays retirement and survivor benefits, on its own, is projected to run dry in the fourth quarter of 2032, a steeper ~22% cut. Combining the funds requires an act of Congress, so this is the current legal-structure outcome.
- DI (disability) fund is fine — the Disability Insurance fund is not projected to deplete within the 75-year window, which is why the combined figure is healthier than OASI alone.
- It hits everyone at once — the reduction applies on the depletion date to current retirees and new claimants alike, at the same percentage, regardless of age or income. The 75-year actuarial deficit is 4.42% of taxable payroll.
The calculator applies your chosen cut to your benefit, computes the annual dollar shortfall, and sums it in today's dollars from the depletion year to your life-expectancy setting (holding the benefit constant in real terms). It then discounts that stream at a disclosed real return to a lump sum needed today, and converts it to the extra monthly savings required between now and the cut. Sources: 2026 OASDI Trustees Report (SSA, June 9, 2026); Congressional Budget Office long-term Social Security projections; CRFB and Bipartisan Policy Center analyses (June 2026).
How to use this calculator
- Enter your current or estimated Social Security benefit. Use the monthly/annual toggle to match your statement — the SSA my Social Security estimate and your annual benefit verification letter both work. If you are not yet claiming, use your estimated benefit at your planned claiming age.
- Set your current age. The calculator uses it to find how old you will be when the cut starts and how many years you are likely to receive a reduced benefit (up to your life-expectancy setting).
- Choose the scenario. "Combined OASDI" (default) uses the 2034 depletion and ~17% cut that assumes Congress combines the funds; "OASI retirement fund only" uses the earlier 2032 depletion and steeper ~22% cut if the funds stay legally separate.
- Adjust your planning life expectancy (default 90) and the assumed real return (default 4% real) used to compute the savings needed. Both are disclosed assumptions you can change.
- Read the results: your reduced monthly benefit, the annual shortfall, the cumulative lifetime shortfall in today's dollars, and the extra monthly savings (or lump sum today) needed to close the gap. Compare the two scenarios in the table below.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Will Social Security really run out in 2034?
Not entirely — Social Security does not disappear. Even after the trust-fund reserves are gone, ongoing payroll taxes (FICA) keep flowing in and can cover most benefits. The 2026 OASDI Trustees Report (released June 9, 2026) projects that if the two funds are legally combined, the reserves deplete in 2034 and continuing income would still pay 83% of scheduled benefits — an automatic across-the-board cut of about 17%. The retirement fund on its own (OASI) is projected to deplete earlier, in the fourth quarter of 2032, with 78% payable (a ~22% cut). The Congressional Budget Office reaches a similar conclusion, projecting the combined fund exhausted by the end of 2034. So the accurate framing is not "$0" but "a permanent haircut on every check unless Congress acts." Source: 2026 OASDI Trustees Report, SSA, June 9, 2026.
How big is the cut?
Under the 2026 Trustees Report, the current-law automatic reduction is about 17% if you use the combined OASDI figure (83% of scheduled benefits payable from 2034) and about 22% if you use the OASI retirement fund alone (78% payable from 2032). This calculator defaults to the combined OASDI 17% figure because that is the number most commentators cite and it assumes Congress reallocates money between the two funds; it also lets you switch to the OASI-only 22% scenario, which is what would happen if the funds are left legally separate. The cut is across-the-board — the same percentage for everyone receiving benefits, regardless of age, income, or need — and it is projected to deepen slightly over time (toward roughly 72-73% payable by the 2090s under the combined fund). For a $2,000 monthly benefit, 17% is about $340 less a month and 22% is about $440 less. Source: 2026 OASDI Trustees Report, SSA, June 9, 2026.
What year does the cut start?
It starts in the year the relevant trust fund's reserves run out. Under the 2026 Trustees Report, the combined OASDI reserves are projected to deplete in the third quarter of 2034, and the OASI retirement fund alone in the fourth quarter of 2032. The cut is not gradual before then: benefits are scheduled to be paid in full right up to the depletion point, and the reduction applies from that year forward. Because Congress has historically acted before a trust fund actually hit zero (it did so for the DI fund in 1994 and again in 2015 by shifting revenue between the funds), the exact start year is uncertain — it depends on whether and when lawmakers pass a fix. The depletion dates also move a little each year as the economy and the report's assumptions change; the OASI date moved up one year (from 2033 to 2032) between the 2025 and 2026 reports. Source: 2026 OASDI Trustees Report, SSA, June 9, 2026.
Does this affect current retirees?
Yes. An automatic across-the-board cut applies to everyone receiving benefits at the time it takes effect, not just future claimants. A person already retired and collecting benefits in 2034 would see the same percentage reduction as a new claimant — the cut is applied to the benefit being paid, not tied to your birth year or claiming age. That is a key difference from most reform proposals, which usually phase changes in for younger cohorts and protect people already retired or near retirement. Under current law there is no such protection: if the fund depletes, the reduction hits current retirees and new retirees alike on the same date. That is precisely why the shortfall is a planning problem even for people who are already claiming or will claim soon — it is not a distant "someone else's" issue. Source: 2026 OASDI Trustees Report, SSA, June 9, 2026; Social Security Act trust-fund payment rules.
Can Congress prevent it?
Yes, and it has broad options to do so — this is the single most important caveat. Congress can eliminate the shortfall by raising the payroll tax rate, lifting or removing the taxable-earnings cap (about $176,100 in 2025), gradually raising the full retirement age, changing the benefit formula or cost-of-living adjustment, drawing on general revenue, or some combination. The 2026 report puts the 75-year gap at 4.42% of taxable payroll, so the required adjustment is large but well within historical precedent. Lawmakers have repaired the program before rather than let benefits fall, most recently reallocating revenue between the retirement and disability funds in 2015. This calculator deliberately models only the current-law scheduled outcome "if Congress does not act" — it does not assume any specific bill passes, and it does not endorse any proposal. Treat the projected cut as a planning risk to hedge, not a certainty. Source: 2026 OASDI Trustees Report, SSA, June 9, 2026.
How much extra should I save to cover the gap?
This tool estimates it two ways. First, it computes the present value today of your projected annual shortfall stream, discounted at a disclosed real return (default 4% real, which you can change) from the depletion year to your chosen life expectancy — that is the lump sum you would need set aside now. Second, it converts that into the extra monthly savings you would have to make between now and the cut's start year to accumulate the same amount, compounding at the same real return. Both figures scale with your benefit, the scenario you pick (17% vs 22%), how many years you expect to collect reduced benefits, and your assumed return. They are deliberately conservative: they hold your benefit constant in real (inflation-adjusted) terms and ignore taxes, sequence-of-returns risk, and any Congressional fix. Use the number as a hedge target, not a precise prescription, and revisit it as new Trustees Reports update the dates. Source: 2026 OASDI Trustees Report figures; standard present-value math.
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Further Reading
See Your Real Retirement Gap — Not Just the Social Security Cut
Richify tracks your Social Security estimate alongside your 401(k), IRA, home equity and every other asset, then models shortfalls like the 2034 benefit cut against your actual net worth — so you know exactly how much more to save. Free, no ads.
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