Social Security Benefit-Cut
Calculator 2026

Not entirely — Social Security does not disappear. Even after the trust-fund reserves are gone, ongoing payroll taxes (FICA) keep flowing in and can cover most benefits.

The 2026 OASDI Trustees Report (released June 9, 2026) projects that if the two funds are legally combined, the reserves deplete in 2034 and continuing income would still pay 83% of scheduled benefits — an automatic across-the-board cut of about 17%. The retirement fund on its own (OASI) is projected to deplete earlier, in the fourth quarter of 2032, with 78% payable (a ~22% cut).

The Congressional Budget Office reaches a similar conclusion, projecting the combined fund exhausted by the end of 2034. So the accurate framing is not "$0" but "a permanent haircut on every check unless Congress acts." Source: 2026 OASDI Trustees Report, SSA, June 9, 2026.

Under the 2026 Trustees Report, the current-law automatic reduction is about 17% if you use the combined OASDI figure (83% of scheduled benefits payable from 2034) and about 22% if you use the OASI retirement fund alone (78% payable from 2032). This calculator defaults to the combined OASDI 17% figure because that is the number most commentators cite and it assumes Congress reallocates money between the two funds; it also lets you switch to the OASI-only 22% scenario, which is what would happen if the funds are left legally separate.

The cut is across-the-board — the same percentage for everyone receiving benefits, regardless of age, income, or need — and it is projected to deepen slightly over time (to 65% payable by 2100 under the combined fund, and 62% for OASI alone). For a $2,000 monthly benefit, 17% is about $340 less a month and 22% is about $440 less.

Source: 2026 OASDI Trustees Report, SSA, June 9, 2026.

It starts in the year the relevant trust fund's reserves run out. Under the 2026 Trustees Report, the combined OASDI reserves are projected to deplete in the third quarter of 2034, and the OASI retirement fund alone in the fourth quarter of 2032.

The cut is not gradual before then: benefits are scheduled to be paid in full right up to the depletion point, and the reduction applies from that year forward. Because Congress has historically acted before a trust fund actually hit zero (it did so for the DI fund in 1994 and again in 2015 by shifting revenue between the funds), the exact start year is uncertain — it depends on whether and when lawmakers pass a fix.

The depletion dates also move a little each year as the economy and the report's assumptions change; the OASI date moved up one year (from 2033 to 2032) between the 2025 and 2026 reports. Source: 2026 OASDI Trustees Report, SSA, June 9, 2026.

Yes. An automatic across-the-board cut applies to everyone receiving benefits at the time it takes effect, not just future claimants.

A person already retired and collecting benefits in 2034 would see the same percentage reduction as a new claimant — the cut is applied to the benefit being paid, not tied to your birth year or claiming age. That is a key difference from most reform proposals, which usually phase changes in for younger cohorts and protect people already retired or near retirement.

Under current law there is no such protection: if the fund depletes, the reduction hits current retirees and new retirees alike on the same date. That is precisely why the shortfall is a planning problem even for people who are already claiming or will claim soon — it is not a distant "someone else's" issue.

Source: 2026 OASDI Trustees Report, SSA, June 9, 2026; Social Security Act trust-fund payment rules.

Yes, and it has broad options to do so — this is the single most important caveat. Congress can eliminate the shortfall by raising the payroll tax rate, lifting or removing the taxable-earnings cap (about $184,500 in 2026), gradually raising the full retirement age, changing the benefit formula or cost-of-living adjustment, drawing on general revenue, or some combination.

The 2026 report puts the 75-year gap at 4.42% of taxable payroll, so the required adjustment is large but well within historical precedent. Lawmakers have repaired the program before rather than let benefits fall, most recently reallocating revenue between the retirement and disability funds in 2015.

This calculator deliberately models only the current-law scheduled outcome "if Congress does not act" — it does not assume any specific bill passes, and it does not endorse any proposal. Treat the projected cut as a planning risk to hedge, not a certainty.

Source: 2026 OASDI Trustees Report, SSA, June 9, 2026.

No — the percentage is the same everywhere. An automatic cut comes from the trust fund running short, so it applies to every beneficiary nationwide at the same rate: about 17% under the combined OASDI projection or 22% for the OASI retirement fund alone (2026 Trustees Report).

What differs by state is the dollar amount, because average benefits differ. In December 2025, the average retired-worker benefit ranged from $1,890 a month in Mississippi to $2,308 in Connecticut (national average $2,071), so a 17% cut would take roughly $321 to $392 off an average check.

Source: SSA Annual Statistical Supplement 2026, Table 5.J6; 2026 OASDI Trustees Report.

In dollars per average retiree, the states with the highest average benefits: Connecticut ($2,308/month, about $392 less at 17%), New Hampshire ($2,298/month, about $391 less at 17%), New Jersey ($2,288/month, about $389 less at 17%). Higher averages usually reflect higher lifetime covered earnings, not a different rule.

In total dollars, the largest losses fall on the states with the most retired workers — California, Florida, Texas. For your own figure, enter your benefit above rather than a state average: the average hides a wide spread, and your SSA statement is the number that applies to you.

Source: SSA Annual Statistical Supplement 2026, Table 5.J6 (December 2025).

This tool estimates it two ways. First, it computes the present value today of your projected annual shortfall stream, discounted at a disclosed real return (default 4% real, which you can change) from the depletion year to your chosen life expectancy — that is the lump sum you would need set aside now.

Second, it converts that into the extra monthly savings you would have to make between now and the cut's start year to accumulate the same amount, compounding at the same real return. Both figures scale with your benefit, the scenario you pick (17% vs 22%), how many years you expect to collect reduced benefits, and your assumed return.

They are deliberately conservative: they hold your benefit constant in real (inflation-adjusted) terms and ignore taxes, sequence-of-returns risk, and any Congressional fix. Use the number as a hedge target, not a precise prescription, and revisit it as new Trustees Reports update the dates.

Source: 2026 OASDI Trustees Report figures; standard present-value math.