What-If Scenarios
for Canadians
Recessions, rate hikes, a new job, a big purchase — see how your money would hold up in each one before it happens. Explore scenarios and project the years ahead, calmly and on your own terms.
Quick answer: A what-if scenario projects your finances under a hypothetical change. A recession is a broad, sustained slowdown in economic activity over several months. A technical recession is shorthand for two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP — but in Canada, official recession dates come from the C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council, which weighs GDP alongside employment, consumption, and industrial output. This tool projects how your starting balance and monthly contributions could grow over 3, 5, or 10 years under four simplified scenarios: a steady ~5% baseline, a recession dip (~3% return + 20% lower contributions), a high-inflation real-return case (~2.5%), and a save-more case (+20% contributions at 5%). Projections are illustrative — not predictions, forecasts, or financial advice.
🧭Your starting point
Meet Sam, your What-If Strategist
Sam is one of Richify's AI agents — the What-If Strategist who explores big-picture scenarios like recessions, rate moves, and market shifts. Ask in plain words and Sam shows you the projection, then helps you explore the branches. Sam's job is to explain and project, never to direct.
- • Explores and explains — Sam never tells you what to do with your money.
- • Speaks human — no jargon walls, just "here is what could happen, and why."
- • Works on your numbers, so the picture is genuinely yours.
3 what-if questions worth exploring
"What if my income dropped for six months?"
See how long your savings would carry you, so you understand your runway instead of guessing at it.
"What if interest rates moved?"
Project a rate change to see how borrowing costs could reshape your monthly cash flow over time.
"What if I saved a little more each month?"
Often the most surprising scenario: small, consistent changes compound dramatically across years.
Recession terms, in plain language
| Term | What it means |
|---|---|
| Recession | A broad, sustained slowdown in economic activity over several months — across output, jobs, spending, and income. |
| Technical recession | The rule of thumb: two consecutive quarters (six months) of falling real GDP. |
| Soft landing | When growth slows enough to cool inflation without tipping into a full recession. |
| Recovery | The phase after a downturn when activity, jobs, and incomes begin growing again. |
Definitions are general and educational. Official Canadian recession calls are made by the C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council using a broad set of indicators.
This is the textbook answer. Want to see this calculated against your actual accounts?
Connect them to Richify →Track Your Finances With Richify AI
Get personalised AI-powered financial insights. Free to download, no ads.
Download Richify — It’s FreeHow It Works
This explorer projects how a starting balance plus monthly contributions could grow over 3, 5, or 10 years under four simplified scenarios — a steady path, a recession dip, a high-inflation backdrop, and a save-a-bit-more case. Each scenario adjusts the assumed annual return and contribution level, then runs a standard compound-growth formula on your numbers.
The underlying math is the future-value formula: starting balance compounded monthly at the assumed rate, plus a monthly contribution stream compounded over the same period. A 5% annual return is split into ~0.41% per month and applied to a 36-, 60-, or 120-month series. The high-inflation scenario uses a lower real return so the resulting balance remains comparable to today's spending power.
What the four scenarios assume
Steady path projects roughly a 5% annual nominal return with contributions continuing at the level you entered. This is the baseline that every other scenario is measured against. Recession dip trims the assumed return to ~3% and eases contributions by ~20%, reflecting a temporary income or hours reduction. High inflation keeps contributions flat but shows growth in today's dollars at a ~2.5% real return. Save a bit more raises contributions by ~20% at the steady-path 5% return to show how a small change compounds over time.
Why scenarios, not forecasts
No one can predict the timing or depth of the next downturn, the path of interest rates, or how inflation will evolve. What an explorer like this can do is make the shape of different outcomes visible against your own numbers. The point is to replace anxiety with clarity — to see how a softer return year or a higher savings rate would play out over time, without taking any action you do not want to take.
How Canadian recession calls work
In Canada, the C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council formally dates recessions using a broad set of indicators — GDP, employment, household consumption, and industrial output — observed over several months. Statistics Canada publishes the underlying data, and the Bank of Canada uses it to set monetary policy. The two-quarters-of-falling-GDP rule of thumb is a useful early signal but is not the official Canadian definition.
Limits of any projection
Markets do not return a fixed percentage each year; they cluster gains and losses. Inflation, taxes, fees, currency movements, and life events all shift outcomes beyond what a single-rate model can show. Treat the projected balance as a thinking exercise, not a target — and verify any decision that depends on it with a licensed financial professional.
How To Use This Calculator
- Enter your current savings in Canadian dollars. This is the starting balance of the investments and cash you would like to project — for example the combined balance of your TFSA, RRSP, and any non-registered investments you track.
- Enter your average monthly contribution. This is the amount you typically add each month from your paycheque, including automated TFSA or RRSP transfers. If your contributions vary, use a 12-month average.
- Choose a time horizon — 3, 5, or 10 years. Shorter horizons make scenarios feel more immediate; longer horizons show compounding more clearly.
- Tap a scenario pill to switch between the steady path, a recession dip, a high-inflation backdrop, or a save-a-bit-more case. The projected balance and the difference versus the steady path update in real time.
- Use the result as a thinking exercise, not a forecast. The projection illustrates how the inputs you provided would behave under simplified assumptions — real-world returns, contributions, and conditions will differ.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is a what-if scenario in personal finance?
A what-if scenario is a projection that answers 'what would happen to my money if a given thing occurred?'. You change one variable — a recession, a rate hike, a new job, or a big purchase — and see how your finances could shift over months and years based on your own numbers. It is an educational exploration, not a forecast or recommendation.
What is a recession in simple terms?
A recession is a meaningful, sustained drop in economic activity across the country, usually visible in output, jobs, spending, and income over several months. It is a normal, recurring phase of the economic cycle rather than a one-off event. In Canada, recession calls are based on a broad set of indicators considered by Statistics Canada and the C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council, not a single quarterly GDP print.
What is a technical recession?
A technical recession is the widely used shorthand for two consecutive quarters (six months) of falling real GDP. It is a fast signal, but official bodies consider a wider set of indicators — including employment, household spending, and industrial output — before formally confirming a recession.
How can a what-if explorer help me prepare for a recession?
There is no single right answer and this is not advice. Understanding your own situation helps. A what-if explorer lets you see how a temporary income dip, a softer market return, or a higher savings rate would reshape your projected balance over the years ahead. The point is to make the picture clear, not to direct you to a specific action.
What is the difference between nominal and real returns?
A nominal return is the headline percentage change in your portfolio. A real return is the nominal return minus inflation — what your money is actually worth in today's dollars. The high-inflation scenario in this explorer shows growth using a lower assumed real return so that a balance projected years out remains comparable to today's spending power.
Who is Sam in the Richify app?
Sam is Richify's What-If Strategist, the in-app AI agent that walks through macro and market scenarios. Sam projects outcomes and explains them in plain language, and is designed to inform and educate — never to tell you what to do with your money.
Is Richify financial advice?
No. Richify is a personal-finance education, tracking, and projection tool. It does not provide financial, investment, or tax advice and is not a registered adviser in Canada. Scenarios are illustrative and for educational purposes only. Verify your circumstances with a licensed financial professional before acting on any projection.
Is Richify available in Canada, and what does it cost?
Yes — Richify is available to download in Canada on the App Store and Google Play, and it is free to start. You can begin exploring what-if scenarios with Sam right away.
More Free Financial Calculators
Mortgage Calculator
Estimate monthly repayments, interest, and amortisation.
🔄Refinance Calculator
See how much you could save by switching lenders.
📈Compound Interest Calculator
Visualise how your savings grow over time.
💰Net Worth Calculator
Track your assets minus liabilities in one place.
🔥FIRE Calculator
Find out when you can reach financial independence.
💱Currency Converter
Convert between currencies with live exchange rates.
Further Reading
Track Your Finances With Richify AI
Get personalised AI-powered financial insights. Free to download, no ads.
Download Richify — It’s Free