What-If Scenarios
for Canadians

This explorer projects how a starting balance plus monthly contributions could grow over 3, 5, or 10 years under four simplified scenarios — a steady path, a recession dip, a high-inflation backdrop, and a save-a-bit-more case. Each scenario adjusts the assumed annual return and contribution level, then runs a standard compound-growth formula on your numbers.

The underlying math is the future-value formula: starting balance compounded monthly at the assumed rate, plus a monthly contribution stream compounded over the same period. A 5% annual return is split into ~0.41% per month and applied to a 36-, 60-, or 120-month series. The high-inflation scenario uses a lower real return so the resulting balance remains comparable to today's spending power.

What the four scenarios assume

Steady path projects roughly a 5% annual nominal return with contributions continuing at the level you entered. This is the baseline that every other scenario is measured against. Recession dip trims the assumed return to ~3% and eases contributions by ~20%, reflecting a temporary income or hours reduction. High inflation keeps contributions flat but shows growth in today's dollars at a ~2.5% real return. Save a bit more raises contributions by ~20% at the steady-path 5% return to show how a small change compounds over time.

Why scenarios, not forecasts

No one can predict the timing or depth of the next downturn, the path of interest rates, or how inflation will evolve. What an explorer like this can do is make the shape of different outcomes visible against your own numbers. The point is to replace anxiety with clarity — to see how a softer return year or a higher savings rate would play out over time, without taking any action you do not want to take.

How Canadian recession calls work

In Canada, the C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council formally dates recessions using a broad set of indicators — GDP, employment, household consumption, and industrial output — observed over several months. Statistics Canada publishes the underlying data, and the Bank of Canada uses it to set monetary policy. The two-quarters-of-falling-GDP rule of thumb is a useful early signal but is not the official Canadian definition.

Limits of any projection

Markets do not return a fixed percentage each year; they cluster gains and losses. Inflation, taxes, fees, currency movements, and life events all shift outcomes beyond what a single-rate model can show. Treat the projected balance as a thinking exercise, not a target — and verify any decision that depends on it with a licensed financial professional.

1. Enter your current savings in Canadian dollars. This is the starting balance of the investments and cash you would like to project — for example the combined balance of your TFSA, RRSP, and any non-registered investments you track.
2. Enter your average monthly contribution. This is the amount you typically add each month from your paycheque, including automated TFSA or RRSP transfers. If your contributions vary, use a 12-month average.
3. Choose a time horizon — 3, 5, or 10 years. Shorter horizons make scenarios feel more immediate; longer horizons show compounding more clearly.
4. Tap a scenario pill to switch between the steady path, a recession dip, a high-inflation backdrop, or a save-a-bit-more case. The projected balance and the difference versus the steady path update in real time.
5. Use the result as a thinking exercise, not a forecast. The projection illustrates how the inputs you provided would behave under simplified assumptions — real-world returns, contributions, and conditions will differ.