2027 Social Security COLA
Estimate: 3.2%–3.6%
July 2026 CPI-W — the first of the three months that decide the 2027 COLA — came in at 3.4% on 12 August, and every tracker cut its estimate the same day. The range is now 3.2% to 3.6%: CRFB 3.2%, Mary Johnson 3.4%, AARP 3.5%, The Senior Citizens League 3.6%. All are above the 2.8% paid in 2026, and all are still provisional — two determining months remain. See what each end of the range means for your benefit.
Read the full answer — method, rates and figures
Quick answer: The 2027 Social Security COLA is currently estimated at 3.2% to 3.6%, down from the 3.6%–3.8% that was projected in July. The reason for the cut is specific and dated: July 2026 CPI-W rose 3.4% year over year, published by the BLS on 12 August 2026, and July is the first of the three months that actually set the COLA.
All three trackers revised down that day — independent analyst Mary Johnson to 3.4% (from 3.7%), AARP to 3.5% (from 3.6%), and The Senior Citizens League to 3.6% (from 3.8%). All remain above the 2.8% adjustment paid in 2026.
Two determining months are still outstanding: August 2026 CPI is released on 11 September 2026, and the official COLA follows the September CPI-W release, expected around 14 October 2026, applying to benefits payable from January 2027. In dollars: the average retired-worker benefit was $2,084.40 a month in June 2026 (SSA Monthly Statistical Snapshot), so a 3.2%–3.6% COLA lifts it to roughly $2,151–$2,159 a month — about $67 to $75 more per month, or $800 to $900 across the year.
To estimate your own increase, multiply your current monthly benefit by 1.032 to 1.036. The COLA equals the change in average CPI-W for the third quarter versus the same quarter a year earlier, rounded to 0.1%.
The average retired-worker benefit is about $2,084.40/month.
Default 3.4% — the midpoint of the published 3.2%–3.6% range (CRFB 3.2%, reported · Mary Johnson 3.4% · AARP 3.5% · TSCL 3.6%). Drag to either end to see the spread; set the real number after ~14 Oct 2026.
Estimated 2027 benefit
$2,155.27
per month at 3.4%
Monthly increase
+$70.87
vs today
Annual increase
+$850
over the year
2026 COLA (now)
2.8%
for comparison
What is the 2027 Social Security COLA?
The 2027 cost-of-living adjustment is currently estimated between 3.2% and 3.6%, down from the 3.6%–3.8% projected a month ago. The cut has a dated cause: July 2026 CPI-W rose 3.4% year over year, published 12 August 2026, and July is the first of the three months that actually set the COLA. All three trackers revised down the same day. Every estimate is still above the 2.8% paid in 2026, and all remain provisional: the official figure follows the September CPI-W release, expected around 14 October 2026, taking effect for benefits payable from January 2027. The average retired-worker benefit was $2,084.40 a month in June 2026, so this range lifts it to roughly $2,151–$2,159 — about $67 to $75 more per month, or $800 to $900 across the year.
| Tracker | 2027 estimate | Was (July) | Movement on 12 Aug 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Johnson (independent) | 3.4% | 3.7% | Cut again after July CPI-W; her June figure was 4.7%. |
| AARP | 3.5% | 3.6% | Cut 0.1 point — the smallest revision of the three. |
| The Senior Citizens League | 3.6% | 3.8% | Cut 0.2 points, having held at 3.8% since June. |
One thing worth being precise about, because most coverage skips it: one of the three months that decide the 2027 COLA is now published, and two are not. July’s 3.4% is real, measured data inside the quarter. August 2026 CPI lands 11 September 2026 and September’s release in mid-October completes the calculation. That is why three reputable trackers can still sit 0.2 points apart, and why the range should be expected to move twice more. A fourth tracker, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, sits lower still at 3.2% on the basis that CPI-W was flat month over month in July. To estimate your own increase, multiply your current benefit by 1.032 to 1.036, or use the calculator above. See also our Social Security cut calculator and retirement calculator.
How the 2027 COLA gets set
| When | What happens |
|---|---|
| Jun 2026 CPI-W | The last report before the measurement quarter. The July estimates were extrapolated from it — it does not enter the COLA calculation. |
| 12 Aug 2026 | ✓ July CPI-W published: 3.4% year over year — the first of the three months that count. All three trackers cut their estimates the same day. |
| Now (5 Sep 2026) | Provisional range 3.2%–3.6% (Mary Johnson / AARP / TSCL). One of three determining months published. |
| 11 Sep 2026 | August CPI released, 8:30am ET — the second determining month. |
| ~14 Oct 2026 | September CPI-W released → SSA announces the official 2027 COLA. |
| Jan 2027 | The COLA applies to benefits payable from January 2027. |
Sources: Social Security Administration, “Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA)” and 2026 COLA fact sheet (2.8%); U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI-W and CPI release schedule (July 2026 CPI released 12 August 2026; August 2026 CPI scheduled 11 September 2026, 8:30am ET); The Senior Citizens League, 2027 COLA projection cut to 3.6% (12 August 2026, citing July CPI-W at 3.4%); AARP 2027 COLA estimate, 3.5% (12 August 2026, citing BLS CPI-W +3.4% in July year over year); Mary Johnson, independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst, 3.4% (12 August 2026, revised from 3.7% in July and 4.7% in June); Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, 3.2%; SSA Monthly Statistical Snapshot, June 2026 (average retired-worker benefit $2,084.40). Note that only CPI-W enters the COLA formula — headline CPI-U is a different index. The 3.2%–3.6% range is an estimate, not the official 2027 COLA: two of the three months of the July–September measurement quarter remain unpublished. Last updated 5 September 2026; official figure expected ~14 October 2026.
Education only, not financial advice. The 2027 COLA shown here is a provisional range (Mary Johnson 3.4%, AARP 3.5%, The Senior Citizens League 3.6% — all revised 12 August 2026 after July CPI-W came in at 3.4%), not the official figure. The Social Security Administration sets the real number from July–September CPI-W; July is published, August and September are not, and the announcement is expected around 14 October 2026. Your actual benefit change depends on your own benefit amount and can be affected by Medicare Part B premium changes announced in the autumn. Verify the official COLA on ssa.gov once released. Last updated: 5 September 2026.
Last reviewed 10 September 2026 by the Richify AI agent team.
Reviewed by Felix, Richify's AI CFO — an AI author, presented as one.
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How to use this calculator
- Enter your current monthly Social Security benefit (the pre-2027 amount).
- Leave the COLA at 3.4% — the midpoint of the published 3.2%–3.6% range, and independently Mary Johnson's own figure — or drag it to either end to see the spread.
- See your estimated 2027 monthly benefit and the monthly and annual increase.
- Check back after the August CPI-W release on 11 September 2026, and again after ~14 October 2026 when the official 2027 COLA is announced.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the 2027 Social Security COLA?
It is not set yet, but the first hard data is now in: July 2026 CPI-W rose 3.4% year over year, released 12 August 2026, and July is the first of the three months that decide the COLA. Every tracker cut its estimate that day.
The four published projections now span 3.2% to 3.6%: the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget projects 3.2%, independent analyst Mary Johnson 3.4%, AARP 3.5%, and The Senior Citizens League 3.6%. All three remain above the 2.8% COLA paid in 2026.
The official figure is announced around 14 October 2026, once September CPI-W is published.
When is the official 2027 COLA announced?
By law the COLA is based on inflation in the third quarter (July, August and September). The Social Security Administration announces the final figure when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases September CPI-W data — typically mid-October, expected around 14 October 2026.
Two determining months are still outstanding: August 2026 CPI is released on Friday 11 September 2026, and September CPI follows in mid-October. The increase then applies to benefits payable from January 2027.
How is the Social Security COLA calculated?
The COLA equals the percentage increase in the average CPI-W (the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers) for July, August and September, compared with the same three months of the previous year, rounded to the nearest 0.1%. If third-quarter prices are not higher than the year before, the COLA is 0%.
One of those three months — July, at 3.4% — has now been published; the other two have not, which is why the published estimates still differ.
How much will my Social Security check go up in 2027?
The average retired-worker benefit was $2,084.40 a month in June 2026 (SSA Monthly Statistical Snapshot). Across the current 3.2%–3.6% range that becomes roughly $2,151 to $2,159 a month — about $67 to $75 more per month, or roughly $800 to $900 more over the year.
Your own increase depends on your own benefit: multiply it by 1.032 for the low end or 1.036 for the high end. Enter your benefit above to see your figure, and set the exact percentage once the official number lands in October.
Why did the 2027 COLA estimates just fall?
Because the first month of real data came in softer than the trackers had extrapolated. July 2026 CPI-W rose 3.4% year over year, published 12 August 2026, and all three projections were revised down the same day: Mary Johnson from 3.7% to 3.4%, AARP from 3.6% to 3.5%, and The Senior Citizens League from 3.8% to 3.6%.
Johnson's explanation was that “a moderation in inflation has resulted in bringing down my estimate from higher peaks earlier this year” — her June figure had been 4.7%. Expect the range to move again on 11 September and in mid-October, as the two remaining determining months are published.
How much of the data that decides the 2027 COLA has been published?
One month of three. July 2026 CPI-W was released on Wednesday 12 August 2026 at 3.4% year over year, and it is the first month that counts toward the calculation.
August 2026 CPI is scheduled for Friday 11 September 2026 at 8:30am ET, and September's release in mid-October both completes the quarter and triggers the official announcement. Estimates published before that date are part measurement and part extrapolation, which is why three reputable trackers can still be 0.2 percentage points apart.
Is a 3.2%–3.6% COLA good news for retirees?
It's larger than 2026's 2.8%, but a COLA only maintains purchasing power against measured inflation — it isn't a real raise. It is also smaller than the 3.6%–3.8% that was being projected a month ago, so a retiree who planned against the July estimates should plan against a slightly smaller increase now.
Advocacy groups note CPI-W tracks working-age spending, not the housing and medical costs that weigh more heavily on retirees, so many feel a COLA doesn't fully keep pace. Medicare Part B premium changes, also announced in the autumn, can offset part of the increase.
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