2027 Social Security COLA
Estimate: 3.6%–3.8%
The 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment is currently estimated between 3.6% and 3.8%, depending on which tracker you follow — AARP 3.6%, Mary Johnson 3.7%, The Senior Citizens League 3.8%, all published mid-July 2026. All are above the 2.8% paid in 2026, and all are provisional: not one of the three months that decide it has been published yet. See what each end of the range means for your benefit.
Read the full answer — method, rates and figures
Quick answer: The 2027 Social Security COLA is currently estimated at 3.6% to 3.8%. The three published trackers disagree: AARP projects 3.6% (14 July 2026), independent analyst Mary Johnson projects 3.7%, and The Senior Citizens League held 3.8% on 14 July 2026 — all up from the 2.8% adjustment paid in 2026. Every one of those is provisional, and for a specific reason: the COLA is set from July, August and September CPI-W, and as of early August 2026 NONE of those three months has been reported. The most recent data the trackers have is June 2026 CPI-W, which was the last release before the measurement quarter and does not enter the calculation. July CPI — the first month that counts — is released on 12 August 2026; the official COLA follows the September CPI-W release, expected around 14 October 2026, and applies to benefits payable from January 2027. In dollars: the average retired-worker benefit was $2,084.40 a month in June 2026 (SSA Monthly Statistical Snapshot), so a 3.6%–3.8% COLA lifts it to roughly $2,159–$2,164 a month — about $75 to $79 more per month, or $900 to $950 across the year. To estimate your own increase, multiply your current monthly benefit by 1.036 to 1.038. The COLA equals the change in average CPI-W for the third quarter versus the same quarter a year earlier, rounded to 0.1%.
Last reviewed 15 August 2026 by the Richify AI editorial team.
The average retired-worker benefit is about $2,084.40/month.
Default 3.7% — the midpoint of the published 3.6%–3.8% range (AARP 3.6% · Mary Johnson 3.7% · TSCL 3.8%, all mid-July 2026). Drag to either end to see the spread; set the real number after ~14 Oct 2026.
Estimated 2027 benefit
$2,161.52
per month at 3.7%
Monthly increase
+$77.12
vs today
Annual increase
+$925
over the year
2026 COLA (now)
2.8%
for comparison
What is the 2027 Social Security COLA?
The 2027 cost-of-living adjustment is currently estimated between 3.6% and 3.8% — the three published trackers disagree, and the spread is the honest answer. All are up from the 2.8% paid in 2026, and all are provisional: the official figure is set from July–September CPI-W and is expected around 14 October 2026, taking effect for benefits payable from January 2027. The average retired-worker benefit was $2,084.40 a month in June 2026, so this range lifts it to roughly $2,159–$2,164 — about $75 to $79 more per month, or $900 to $950 across the year.
| Tracker | 2027 estimate | Published / movement |
|---|---|---|
| AARP | 3.6% | 14 July 2026 — AARP’s first 2027 projection. |
| Mary Johnson (independent) | 3.7% | July 2026 — cut a full point from 4.7% after June CPI fell 0.4%. |
| The Senior Citizens League | 3.8% | Held 14 July 2026 — unchanged from June, down from 3.9% in April. |
One thing worth being precise about, because most coverage skips it: none of the three months that decide the 2027 COLA has been published yet. The newest inflation reading any of these trackers has is June 2026 CPI-W, and June was the last release before the measurement quarter — it does not enter the formula at all. July CPI, the first month that counts, lands 12 August 2026. Expect the range to move then, and again in September and October. To estimate your own increase, multiply your current benefit by 1.036 to 1.038, or use the calculator above. See also our Social Security cut calculator and retirement calculator.
How the 2027 COLA gets set
| When | What happens |
|---|---|
| Jun 2026 CPI-W | The last report before the measurement quarter. Every current estimate is extrapolated from it — but it does not enter the COLA calculation. |
| Now (5 Aug 2026) | Provisional range 3.6%–3.8% (AARP / Mary Johnson / TSCL). Zero of the three determining months published. |
| 12 Aug 2026 | July CPI released, 8:30am ET — the first of the three months that actually count. |
| Sep 2026 | August CPI-W released — the second determining month. |
| ~14 Oct 2026 | September CPI-W released → SSA announces the official 2027 COLA. |
| Jan 2027 | The COLA applies to benefits payable from January 2027. |
Sources: Social Security Administration, “Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA)” and 2026 COLA fact sheet (2.8%); U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI-W and CPI release schedule (July 2026 CPI: 12 August 2026, 8:30am ET); The Senior Citizens League 2027 COLA projection (held at 3.8%, 14 July 2026, from CPI-W through June); AARP 2027 COLA projection (3.6%, 14 July 2026); Mary Johnson, independent Social Security analyst (3.7%, July 2026, revised down from 4.7% in June); SSA Monthly Statistical Snapshot, June 2026 (average retired-worker benefit $2,084.40). The 3.6%–3.8% range is an estimate, not the official 2027 COLA — no month of the July–September measurement quarter had been published when this page was last reviewed. Last updated 5 August 2026; official figure expected ~14 October 2026.
Education only, not financial advice. The 2027 COLA shown here is a provisional range (AARP 3.6%, Mary Johnson 3.7%, The Senior Citizens League 3.8% — all mid-July 2026), not the official figure. The Social Security Administration sets the real number from July–September CPI-W, none of which had been published as of 5 August 2026; the announcement is expected around 14 October 2026. Your actual benefit change depends on your own benefit amount and can be affected by Medicare Part B premium changes announced in the autumn. Verify the official COLA on ssa.gov once released. Last updated: 5 August 2026.
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How to use this calculator
- Enter your current monthly Social Security benefit (the pre-2027 amount).
- Leave the COLA at 3.7% — the midpoint of the published 3.6%–3.8% range — or drag it to either end to see the spread.
- See your estimated 2027 monthly benefit and the monthly and annual increase.
- Come back after ~14 October 2026, when the official 2027 COLA is announced, to lock in the real figure.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the 2027 Social Security COLA?
Nobody knows yet — the three trackers that publish estimates currently span 3.6% to 3.8%. AARP projects 3.6% (14 July 2026, its first 2027 estimate), independent analyst Mary Johnson projects 3.7%, and The Senior Citizens League held its estimate at 3.8% on 14 July 2026. All three are above the 2.8% COLA paid in 2026, and all three are provisional: the official 2027 COLA is set from July, August and September CPI-W and is expected to be announced around 14 October 2026.
When is the official 2027 COLA announced?
By law the COLA is based on inflation in the third quarter (July, August and September). The Social Security Administration announces the final figure when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases September CPI-W data — typically mid-October, expected around 14 October 2026. The increase then applies to benefits payable from January 2027.
How is the Social Security COLA calculated?
The COLA equals the percentage increase in the average CPI-W (the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers) for July, August and September, compared with the same three months of the previous year, rounded to the nearest 0.1%. If third-quarter prices are not higher than the year before, the COLA is 0%. Because summer estimates only have part of the quarter's data, they move with each monthly inflation report.
How much will my Social Security check go up in 2027?
The average retired-worker benefit was $2,084.40 a month in June 2026 (SSA Monthly Statistical Snapshot). Across the current 3.6%–3.8% range that becomes roughly $2,159 to $2,164 a month — about $75 to $79 more per month, or roughly $900 to $950 more over the year. Your own increase depends on your own benefit: multiply it by 1.036 for the low end or 1.038 for the high end. Enter your benefit above to see your figure, and set the exact percentage once the official number lands.
Why do the 2027 COLA estimates keep changing?
The COLA uses only July, August and September CPI-W, so every estimate published before mid-October is an extrapolation from data outside the measurement quarter. The clearest example is the swing this summer: independent analyst Mary Johnson estimated 4.7% in June 2026, then cut it a full percentage point to 3.7% after June CPI fell 0.4% — the first monthly decline since May 2020. The Senior Citizens League moved less, from 3.9% in April to 3.8% in June and July. That is why this page shows a range rather than a single number.
Has any of the data that decides the 2027 COLA been published yet?
No. As of early August 2026, none of the three determining months has been reported. The most recent inflation reading available to the trackers is June 2026 CPI-W, and June was the last report before the measurement quarter began — it does not enter the calculation at all. July 2026 CPI, the first month that actually counts, is scheduled for Wednesday 12 August 2026 at 8:30am ET, with August's release in September and September's in mid-October. Expect the estimates to move on each of those three dates.
Is a 3.6%–3.8% COLA good news for retirees?
It's larger than 2026's 2.8%, but a COLA only maintains purchasing power against measured inflation — it isn't a real raise. Advocacy groups also note CPI-W tracks working-age spending, not the housing and medical costs that weigh more heavily on retirees, so many feel a COLA doesn't fully keep pace. Medicare Part B premium changes (also announced in the autumn) can offset part of the increase.
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Further Reading
Plan Your 2027 Benefit With Confidence
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